After the first eight races, the gap in the drivers’ championship between the leader and the runner-up is just 31 points, while in the constructors’ only 24 points separate the first two. Does this mean that we might finally have a title fight in Formula 1?
Out of the first eight races, Max Verstappen only won five of them. That is surely a good number, but still lower than expected after such a dominant 2023 season. Carlos Sainz, Lando Norris, and Charles Leclerc all have one win under their belt.
It could still be too early to answer the previous question, but surely, 2024 is in many ways different from the last two seasons that saw Verstappen and Red Bull dominate over the competitors.
In the first two races of the 2024 campaign, Verstappen flawlessly dominated, just like he did in 2023. In Bahrain, he put 22 seconds between him and Sergio Perez, who arrived second, and 25 between himself and Sainz. Then, in Saudi Arabia, he also won without complications, beating his teammate and Leclerc by 13 and 18 seconds, respectively.
In Australia, where Ferrari seemed closer than ever, Verstappen had issues with his rear-right brake and had to retire from the race, allowing Sainz and Leclerc to score a 1-2 finish for the Scuderia.
The Dutchman went back to winning ways in Japan and China, showing his dominance once again. But then, in Miami, Lando Norris scored his maiden Formula 1 win, beating Verstappen on pace – even though a late safety car allowed the Britton to pit and come out ahead of the three-time world champion -. Despite that, it is fair to underline how Norris finished 7 seconds ahead of Verstappen, who didn’t have the pace to keep up with the McLaren.
The Dutchman then won again on Italian soil, in Imola. However, after a strong first stint, Verstappen lost all his advantage over Norris, who caught up to him and ended the race just 0.7s behind. Finally, the last race was in Monaco, where Verstappen only finished sixth and Leclerc won in front of his home fans. Everybody knows that overtaking at Monte Carlo is basically impossible, and a mistake on the last lap of Q3 ruined Verstappen’s hopes of fighting for pole position and the win.
The results of the first races demonstrate that, unlike last year, Red Bull is neither perfect nor unreachable. Both Ferrari and McLaren have closed the gap to the Milton Keynes outfit, which still might be ahead in terms of overall performance. However, in Miami, McLaren started bringing major updates and has been fighting for victory consistently. Ferrari also developed the car with upgrades in Imola and is not too far either.
Red Bull, or better said, Verstappen, will probably be the one to beat at almost every venue anyway. The Milton Keynes-based outfit struggles on bumpy tracks and high curbs, like the Monaco streets or the high curbs of the Variante Alta in Imola. On the other hand, the RB20’s overall performance on normal, classic Formula 1 tracks is still excellent, especially with a high fuel load.
Therefore, a title fight for the drivers’ championship might be tougher to witness, as Verstappen can almost always extract every grain of performance from the car. However, he is not fully happy with it at the moment, he said that in Imola and Monaco. Moreover, with Perez struggling in the last races, the fight for the constructors’ championship could go down to the wire if Ferrari and McLaren don’t steal each other too many important points.
If the trend of other drivers winning races other than Verstappen continues, if Red Bull cannot find solutions to keep Ferrari and McLaren at bay, the battle between three teams for the constructor championship could be extremely interesting and entertaining.
Another factor that emerged after the Monaco GP was the budget cap. With Perez’s crash, Red Bull suffered from 2 to 3 million dollars in damage, which might force them to stop developing the car later in the season. This could be a key factor, not only for the Milton Keynes team but for the Scuderia and McLaren, too.