The first breaking news of the Formula 1 summer break was that Carlos Sainz would join Williams in 2025, but could he have gone to a more competitive outfit like Red Bull Racing?
Back at the start of the year, the only driver that managed to defeat Max Verstappen and Red Bull – except for Sergio Perez – in the 2023 season found himself without a contract for the upcoming season. Ferrari ended Sainz’s contract to welcome the seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton in Maranello.
The news came out of the blue and was probably a kind of shock for the Spaniard considering how good he had performed – and he still is – for the Scuderia. Despite that, there seemed to be plenty of options for the 29-year-old, such as Red Bull, Mercedes, or Aston Martin.
All those teams would have been good alternatives for Sainz, as they could give him a good and competitive car to fight for more than just points in the future. However, those choices became fewer and fewer with time, up to the point where Sainz had to decide between midfield teams like Alpine, Sauber, or Williams.
Many things can change from one year to another, but it is not very realistic to think that even a historic and respectful team like Williams will be fighting for victories or podiums in 2025. Despite it being the fourth year with these regulations, closing the gap to the top teams hasn’t been an easy task for the British outfit. What’s more, considering their current form, it is unlikely for them to challenge the top teams before the 2026 campaign.
So, it is safe to say that it is unlikely for Sainz to have a competitive season at the top of the field, but Williams was probably his best option anyway, so why blame him? But what if he considered another option that might have allowed him to join one of the top teams: Red Bull.
The idea would’ve been not signing any contract until the end of the season, with the high risk of remaining without a seat. However, considering Perez’s current form, Red Bull might consider terminating his contract early. Despite him staying at least until the end of the season, it is not guaranteed that he will drive for Red Bull in 2025, too.
“For 2025, the cards will be reshuffled,” is what Helmut Marko said after the Belgian GP. In fact, it is no secret that Perez hasn’t been performing well enough in the last months, leaving the team in danger of losing the lead in the constructors’ championship.
There are mainly three drivers that could be in contention for the second Red Bull seat should Perez be released by the team: Yuki Tsunoda, Daniel Ricciardo, and Liam Lawson. The Japanese driver isn’t considered to be mature enough, the Aussie is probably the better option as his comeback would be liked by many, while Lawson only has a few races in F1 under his belt.
Speaking of Ricciardo, though, he doesn’t seem to be the number one option for Marko, who has a strong position in these kinds of situations. The latter believes that it would be better for Red Bull to promote a young driver such as Lawson, Ayumu Iwasa, or Isack Hadjar.
“We have three juniors who are ready for Formula 1, with Liam Lawson certainly at the top of the list. Behind him, there is also Ayumu Iwasa and Isack Hadjar.”
Marko also added that the goal is to “make use of our existing drivers,” but since Verstappen became the team’s star, all the young talents who drove for Red Bull have failed. So why not search outside the team’s walls and sign a talented, experienced driver, even though he will be turning 30 in less than a month?
The “talented and experienced” driver would be Sainz, of course. And here the aforementioned idea of risking remaining without a seat comes into play. The Spaniard could’ve tried to convince Red Bull to give him a shot at least for one year, and he could’ve played all his cards in 2025, trying to secure a more stable contract with a top team for the future.
It would’ve been a jump in the unknown for Sainz, but who knows, maybe it was worth taking the risk instead of now risking fighting in the midfield until the end of his career.
The decision he would’ve had to make would’ve been risky and maybe not worth it, considering how difficult it is to make Marko change his mind, but sometimes even the wildest things can happen. Plus, Sainz could’ve been a good addition alongside Verstappen to go back to score a lot of points for the team every weekend and bring back the consistency that Red Bull is lacking right now.